What Future for the United States?
The United States in the Twenty-First Century: Between Disintegration and Strategic Renewal

Reflections in Geopolitics on the Decline of the American Empire

Table of Content

Introduction

Part I – Internal Geopolitical Drivers of American Decline

Section A – Political Fractures and Institutional Crisis

1. Tribalization and Polarization
2. Crisis of Representation and Legitimacy
3. Federalism and Conflicts between the States and the Federal Government
4. Politicization of Justice and the Supreme Court

Section B – Material and Socioeconomic Fractures

• Economic and Industrial Decline
• Social Inequalities and Class Conflict
• Health Care System and the Cost of Care
• Education System and Student Debt
• Decline of Physical Infrastructure
• Energy and the Geography of Domestic Resources

Section C – Identity and Cultural Fractures

• Systemic Racism and Racial Tensions
• Immigration and the Evolution of Ethnic Composition
• Identity Conflicts and the End of the American Dream
• Religion and Cultural Fault Lines
• Crisis of National Pedagogy and Woke Culture

Section D – Social Fragilities and Homeland Security

• Gun Violence and Militias
• Organized Crime, Narcotrafficking, and the U.S.–Mexico Border
• Urban Crisis, Marginalization, and Social Decay
• Depression, Unhappiness, and the Crisis of Collective Well-Being
• Technology and the Power of Big Tech
• Cybersecurity and the Security of Critical Infrastructure
• Militarization of Society and the Military-Industrial Complex

Section E – Long-Term Structural Dynamics

• Demographics and ethnicities
• Climate Change and Domestic Environmental Disasters

Part II – External Geopolitical Drivers of American Decline

Section A – Erosion of Global Hegemony

• The Decline of Cultural Hegemony and International Influence
• The Loss of Deterrent Capacity and the Erosion of Military Supremacy
• Financial Decline and the Future of the Dollar as Global Currency
• The Global Technological Revolution: Artificial Intelligence, Chips, and Space

Section B – Global Pressures and Systemic Challenges

• Global Migrations and the Refugee Crisis
• International Trade, Supply Chains, and the New Protectionism
• Energy Balance, Oil Dependence, and the Green Transition
• Nuclear Proliferation and the Risks of Multipolar Deterrence
• International Terrorism and New Hybrid Threats (Cyber, Bio, Information)
• Climate Change and Global Security
• Conflict with International Organizations and Retreat from Global Rules

Section C – Great-Power Competition and New Blocs

• Strategic Competition with China
• Confrontation with Russia and the War in Ukraine
• Relations with Europe: Between Alliance and Divergence
• The Middle East and the Erosion of U.S. Centrality
• Challenges in the Chinese Seas and the Taiwan Question
• Instability in Eastern Europe and the Balkans
• Relations with Latin America and the Loss of the “Backyard”
• Africa as a New Theater of Geopolitical Competition
• The Arctic and the Militarization of Polar Routes
• The Global South and the New Multipolar Alignment (India, Brazil, ASEAN, Gulf)

Part III – Strategies and Future Scenarios

Section A – What Future for the United States

• Political Radicalization and the Risk of Latent Civil Conflict
• Systemic Decline and the Crisis of American Hegemony
• Strategies to Reverse or Manage the Decline